Friday, January 18, 2008

The Zogby Poll in Nevada

I think Obama needs to win in Nevada. I really do. I think he needs a new swing in momentum going into South Carolina and then to Florida and Super Tuesday. That is just my lay opinion.

Clinton holds a five-point lead in Nevada over Obama, 42% to 37%. Edwards is a distant third at 12% support, while 5% of voters remain undecided.

Clinton held a strong advantage in the city of Las Vegas, with the support of 48% support of likely Democratic voters who live there. Obama attracted 36% of that group and Edwards 10%. Obama, meanwhile, did better in the rest of the state, taking 41% of support to Clinton’s 31% and Edwards’ 16%.

Clinton had a strong lead among women, with 46% of their number supporting her, compared with 36% for Obama and 12% for Edwards, the telephone survey shows. Obama and Clinton were just a point apart among male supporters, him winning 39% and her 38%. The two top candidates’ performance among different age groups were virtual mirror images of one another, with Obama dominating 54% to 28% among the 18-29 bracket and Clinton winning a hefty 57% of those over age 65 to Obama’s 25%. Clinton had more support from those aged 50 to 64, while Obama led among voters aged 30 to 49.

Zogby on Nevada said: “Clinton holds a slight lead in Nevada but it will all depend on organization. Nevada Democrats have no real history for us to go on, so we will have to see how powerful the unions, civil rights, and other organizations are in bringing out their constituencies. Noteworthy is the tale of Black America vs. White America. Obama leads among African Americans 81% to 16%, while Clinton leads among whites 46% to 31%. What this portends for other states we will have to wait and see.

Significantly, Clinton leads among Hispanics 51% to 27%. Clinton also leads among Moderates. The two top candidates are battling it out among union members.

“A majority of Democratic caucus voters say that they favor a candidate who represents change (53%) rather than experience (36%). Among those who cite change, Obama wins 50% to Clinton’s 29%. Among those who cite experience, Clinton receives 64% to Obama’s meager 10%.

No comments: