Then, the news of Troy Glaus and his steroid problem, Jay Gibbons and now MLB wants to meet with Gary Mathews, jr and his shipments of HGH. Oh baseball is in trouble. But, when are we going to get the real culprits, baseball officials who deny this is a problem and say it is a few bad apples? You know, the Donald Rumsfeld defense. This is not a Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield problem, this is a tremendous problem for baseball and the ungodly power numbers are ruining a magical game. Baseball has been a soulful experience for me, it helped save me, it taught me how to win, lose and how to be a man. This game is no ordinary game. When I see those fans who are passionate about the world cup and soccer, that passion is what I feel for this game, but it is something more. It is part of me. It is not separate from who I am. I do not exist without it and I feel a tremendous sadness when it becomes a laughing stock. So, I wanted to investigate just when these numbers went crazy. Here is that analysis.
The onset of the power game entered baseball when Babe Ruth decided to put down his pitcher's glove for good and play the outfield. In 1919 still with the Red Sox he played 111 games and hit 29 Home Runs breaking the single season record for most home runs in a single season. Before Ruth the home run was not considered to be important, instead it was conside
red to be selfish because of the chances of a pop-out and certainly because the fences were so far, hitting a home run was done by hitting it over the outfielder's reach rather than a fence. The year before Ruth hit his 29 Home Runs the league leader hit 11.
red to be selfish because of the chances of a pop-out and certainly because the fences were so far, hitting a home run was done by hitting it over the outfielder's reach rather than a fence. The year before Ruth hit his 29 Home Runs the league leader hit 11. The next year Ruth was traded to the Yanks (by my beloved Red Sox) and the game changed forever. Ruth hit 54 Home Runs, the next closest player hit 19 and the birth of modern baseball began. Ruth hit 59 Home Runs the next year and then famously hitting 60 in 1927. By the end of the decade, however the likes of Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Hack Wilson were challenging his Home Run totals. In that decade from 1921- 1930 there were (16) 40 Home Run hitters (an average of 1.6 per season) and (38) 30 Home Run hitters (an average of almost 4 per season). Not until the late 20's did others begin hitting homers like Ruth.
In the next decade with Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, Jimmie Fox and the ending of Ruth and Gehrig's careers one would expect the totals to begin to sky rocket. But, they did not. Again, from 1931 - 1940 only (16) players hit 40 Home Runs during the decade (an average of 1.6 per season) and (59) players hit 30 Home Runs (an average of almost six per season). Only two players hit 50 home runs during the decade, Hank Greenberg hit 58 and in 1938 and Jimmie Fox hit 58 in 1932 and 50 also in 1938.
Remarkably during the next decade from 1941 - 50 the home run totals went down, most notably by the war years. An average of less than one 40 home run hitter (only 8 for the entire decade) per season and (4) 30 home run hitters (43 for the decade). The hitting was remarkable, however because Williams and Dimaggio had one of the best seasons ever in 1941. Stan Musial was beginning to flourish, but the pitching also seemed to catch up to the hitting as (the statistics show) seems to happen naturally through the decades.
The next decade from 1951 - 1960 is when the Home Run steadied and did so for the next forty years ebbing and flowing, with standout seasons and some anomalies that we will see. But, usually these seasons have to do with expansion of the MLB teams and then the following year the numbers come back into line. There is one season that does not follow that trend and it is 1987. Regardless, in the 50's an average of (3) players with forty home run seasons per season occurred during the decade (a total of (33)forty home run seasons for the decade) and (97) 30 home run seasons which is more than double the last decade for an average of almost (10) 30 home run performances per season during the 1950's.
Several things to take note during this decade - black players integrated and their unique play began its indelible mark upon baseball, including Willy Mays, Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks and Eddie Mathews. Willy Mays hit 50 Home Runs during the 1955 season as did Mickey Mantle in 1956, the only two players to hit 50 homers during the decade. It seems integration certainly helped the amount of players to hit 30 home runs, but not 40 home runs. Of course integration also added to the pool better pitching with the likes of Don Newcombe and Satchel Paige among many others. It seems to me from the numbers 40 home run seasons remained rare and 30 home run seasons increased.
Along come the 1960's the first real batch of expansion. The Los Angeles Angels and the Minnesota Twins were added to the American League. What happened? Roger Maris hit 61 Home Runs, the first time since 1927 anyone hit 60 Home Runs. Mickey Mantle hit 54 Home Runs and probably would have matched him had he not been sick and hurt. The next season the New York Mets and the Houston Colt 45's were added to the national league. But, looking at the decade as a whole the numbers do not increase that much. There was a total of (37) 40 Home Run hitters averaging almost four per season and a total of (120) 30 home run seasons during the decade, averaging 12 per season. Again, the numbers only increased statistically for the 30-home run seasons. Of course by the end of the decade you had the likes of Bob Gibson and Denny McClain, not to mention maybe the greatest pitcher ever -Sandy Koufax smack in the middle of the decade.
Pitching was catching up. Not to mention the second round of expansion occurred in 1969 adding the Montreal Expos and the San Diego Padres to the NL and the Seattle Pilots and Kansas City Royals to the AL. Of course 1969 and 1970 were big years for home run hitters despite the supremacy of pitching. In 1969 17 hitters hit 30 home runs and there were seven 40 homer seasons, both records at that point and in 1970 19 hitters hit 30 home runs another record and six 40 home run hitters.
The DH was added to the American League in 1973. Despite this new hitting advantage pitching reigned in hitters. In the decade there were only (17) 40-home run seasons (an average of below 2) and (92) 30-home run seasons (an average of just over nine). Again in 1977 when the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays were added home run totals went up. George Foster became the only player to hit 50 home runs in a season for the decade and 19 hitters hit 30 home runs that season, despite only (4) hitters doing the same the previous season. Expansion clearly helps the hitters in the year or two following it, but pitching adjusts.
1 comment:
Kid,
I have read countless books, especially when I was about 13, on the evolution of baseball. i loved and still love the game. i worshipped the Yanks when I was younger, and knew stats about my favorite players better than any information I learned in a classroom. I lived and breathed the sport. But my parents never let me play, mainly because they were afraid that it would become too important and take away from time as a family.
I still feel kinda cheated by their insistence that I not play. I ended up playing basketball, and like that OK. But I alsways think about what life would have beenif I had played, had some talent, and started moving up the ladder.
When would the steroid issue have affected me...high school, college, or even earlier? Does the MLB even think about how their hal-ass enforcing of this issue has created a vascuum of interest in ethics in sport? Do they worry about the next Ankiel, or Palmeiro, or McGwire?
My son is two years old. I would love if he played a sport. I just don't know that I want him near to baseball. Just in case he's good, the system has a way of doing things to a prospect. Things that are hard to say no to when millions could be down the road.
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