The Evolution of the Home Run Part II

The 1980's in my mind are a very important decade for the home run despite it being a down decade. First in 1981 a strike occurred and only one player hit 30 home runs, the formidable Mike Schmidt. The year of 1987 accounts for this down year, however and we will get to that. As a decade (this time frame is 1981- 1992 a 12 year period) the 1980's had only (16) 40 home run seasons, one less than the 1970's (an average of 1.7 per season for the decade). But, there were (120) 30 homer seasons (an average of 12 per season for the decade). What is most important about this decade is 1987. We should look at the three year period of 1986-1988 to show how askew 1987 was and surely this could not have happened by accident.

In 1986 Jesse Barfield (yes, Jesse Barfield) led the league in homers with 40 followed by Mike Schmidt with 37. Only one 40 home run hitter and (13) 30 home run hitters. That year Mike Scott led the league in ERA with a 2.22 ERA. Skipping 1987 for the moment in 1988 Jose Canseco led the league with 42 homers followed by Daryl Strawberry with 39 and Joe Magrane led the league in ERA with a 2.18 followed by David Cone at 2.22. There was only one 4o home run hitter and only (5) 30 home run hitters. The #6 Home Run hitter was Will Clark with 29. Not a single hitter hit 50 home runs in the decade, a feat that was becoming more of a rarity and 60 home runs was considered to be almost as untouchable as hitting .400 and 56 straight games with a hit.

In 1987, however an astonishing (28) hitters hit 30 home runs or more led by rookie hulk Mark McGwire with 49 as did Andre Dawson. The #50 home run hitter that year had 26 home runs in 1987. The #13 Home Run hitter in 1988 had 26 home runs and the #50 home run hitter in 1988 only had 19 home runs. This number jump in 1987 and then back to normal in 1988 could not be by accident. Wade Boggs in 1987 had 24 home runs and never before or after had more than 11 home runs, done in 1994, the only other time he had double figure home runs. Talk that year was that the ball was juiced whatever that meant. Something, surely happened and it changed the next year. But, did baseball learn something that year? Was it an experiment to try a new power surge?

The Steroid (HGH) Era

That power surge miraculously occurred when baseball was on the brink in 1994. It began around 1993 and then went through the roof in 1995 after the strike never to relinquish. First the numbers. I included the time frame of 1993 -2006 a fourteen year period with the strike occurring in the second year. But, the averages are remarkable how much they differ. During this period there were (139) 40 home run seasons (two occurring in the strike year of 1994) an average of just over ten per season. The highest other total for a decade in the 1960's was an average of 3.7 for the decade. During that time frame there were (437) 30 home run seasons an average of (33) per season. The highest other totals were an average of 12 during the 1960's and the 1980's. That is a statistical jump that can only be accounted for by a surge in the home run through other means. Many of the arguments over the years were expansion (not true), pitching (not true), the umpires (ridiculous), smaller ball parks (partly true, but not really) and the players getting bigger! Voila!

Watch the numbers rise. In 1993 a much smaller and in my mind much better player, Barry Bonds led the league with 46 home runs. That year there were five 40 home run hitters, the fifth largest total for a season so far. The first two occurring in the golden years of baseball 1953 -55 and then 1969-70 with expansion. But, there were (22) 30 home run hitters a record season up to that point. After the strike of 1994, 1995 followed 93 with four 40 home run hitters and 21 30 home run hitters. Also, Albert Belle had 50 homers that year the second time in the decade so far a hitter hit 50. Cecil Fielder did it in 1990 with 51. I remember these two seasons thinking how momentous these occasions were, fifty homers a Ruthian feat.

In 1996 Mark McGwire hit 50 home runs for the first time (52) and Brady Anderson also compiled 50 home runs. He had not hit more than 21 in a season up to that point and never again hit more than 24. That year there were (17) players who hit 40 homers and (43) players who hit 30 homers. In 1997 two players hit 50 (McGwire had 58 and Griffey - 56), 12 players hit 40 homers and 31 players hit 30. In 1998 ("the year that saved baseball") McGwire hit 70 and Sosa 66, with four 50 home run hitters that year, Griffey and Greg Vaughn. Thirteen 40 homer seasons and (33) 30 homer seasons. The pinnacle is the year 2000 when the high was 50 homers for Sosa, sixteen forty homer seasons and (47) players with 30 home runs or more. Ridiculous. The #50 home run hitter had 28 while the #50 home run hitter just 8 years before had 17. In one season (2000) that is half the total of 40 homer seasons for the entire decade of the 1980's and that includes 1987 when 28 hitters did that.

The next year Bonds had 73 homers with again four players hitting 50 (Sosa had 60), (12) players hit 40 and (41) players hitting 30. In all from 1920 - 1994 there were only (17) 50 home run seasons. They were the standouts, Mays, Ruth, Greenberg, Mantle, Foxx. In the period from 1995-2006 21 players had 50 home run seasons including the likes of Brady Anderson, Luis Gonzalez and Greg Vaughn. These are not names we associate with Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Ruth, Williams, Frank Robinson, but somehow they are there. To put it in a deeper perspective from 1951 - 1990 there were 98 40-home run seasons. And from 1991 - 2000 there were 96 home run seasons. That is not an accurate portrayal of the level of play and ability to hit a home run. What is more 1991 - 92 followed the same trajectory as the 80's, but then 93 there is a jump in the numbers that never stops. Rafael Palmeiro has 569 home runs and is tenth on the all-time list. This guy was not even the best on his team most years.

Something must be done to re-focus the integrity of the game. We are not "out" of the steroid era. It is still happening. Miraculously, players in their "contract" year suddenly have career years, a la Gary Mathews and his new 50 million dollar contract. The performance enhancing market has become a matter of economics. You want big money then you use. That is the bottom line. Major League Baseball owes it to all of us to tell the truth and get the game back where it should be. Who cares if Bonds or anyone else is prosecuted? This is a baseball problem and there are literally hundreds of players yet to be caught. But, who cares? Develop a test and players will stop using. Then, we will know what is real and what was not.

Ken Griffey, jr. who has never been linked to steroids may be the biggest loser in all of this. He sits at 593 home runs, hurt and looking like the almost 38 year old player he is. He is having a good season, but he is a shadow of what he used to be, just as Mays was at 38, Ruth, Aaron, etc. One does not start an assault on the record books at the age of 36. MLB should come clean so we can all trust it again.

Here is a spreadsheet table of decades. Take a look and decide for yourself. Also see Part I of the Evolution of the Home Run.