Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Predictions, Ahem

I saw these predictions on Daily Kos while I have nothing to do here at the Obama headquarters. Pretty soon I will head to the polls once again. This person is predicting California for Obama which at this point I do not buy. I think Cally will be close, but Clinton will win by a few percentage points. I do think, however Connecticut will be for Obama (based on polling and the fact that a lot of friends from that state called me and said they switched). I think Massachusetts will also be closer than predicted, but stay with Clinton.

I just did my own predictions with lame codes of predictors and it seems Clinton 11, Obama 11 in states. And all the big and important states are close, so these two seem to be going to the wire and will come out nearly even with delegates close and no one knowing how many each will come out with until weeks from now. Amazing. We thought the super bowl was close?

The codes that say advantage are literally toss-ups in my opinion because of the lack of polls or the polls are too close to call. Anyone predicting these states are just doing what I am doing. Pulling it out of my derriere

States Obama will win:

Illinois (big)
Georgia (pretty big)
Colorado (small margin)
Kansas (pretty big)
Utah (small to pretty big)
Idaho (pretty big)
Alabama (advantage Obama)
Deleware (advantage Obama)
North Dakota

For Clinton:
New York (big)
California (small margin)
New Jersey (pretty big)
Oklahoma (big)
Arkansas (big)
Tennessee (pretty big)
Missouri (advantage Clinton)
New Mexico (advantage Clinton)
Arizona (advantage Clinton)
Minnesota (advantage Clinton
Massachusetts (advantage Clinton)

By the way people are freaking on daily kos because Hillary is now calling for a Fox debate. Something the candidates agreed they would not do.


magda flores said...

You volunteered today?! I'm jealous. I may have to get on it for next week.

Anonymous said...

I don't get the spin that Hillary won this thing. I mean she lost Missouri, New Mexico and Connecticut and Minnesota, all states she was leading in. Hillary won NY and CA and AZ all states she was supposed to win. Barack will get 14 states and most of the pledged delegates, wtf? Albeit, Alaska and N. Dakota do not count for much, but I think overall it is a big night for Obama and despite the Clinton spin they are worried.