Delegate Math for the Democrats

I have been doing some math and some perusing around the internet regarding this democratic race to take back our Presidency to at least some form of people, not corporations. I am crossing my fingers anyway. But, the math for Mrs. Clinton does not add up. Anyway you slice it she must rely on the superdelegates. And one more thing, there is no way this race comes down to March 4th. This thing is going a long way. Right now wikipedia (this is a good source for this information because they have been keeping track and they only award delegates when they are actually awarded, not estimated) has the delegate count at pledged delegates 1124 for Obama and 984 for Clinton. That is a lead of 140 delegates.

With Wisconsin (70 delegates) and Hawaii (20 delegates) upcoming Obama should be expected to pick up a few "net" delegates. Even if Wisconsin stays pretty close, which I think it will; he should win Hawaii by a huge margin. Then, on March 4th there are 380 pledged delegates (Rhode Island, Vermont, Texas and Ohio) up for grabs. In my opinion the only way this thing ends is if Mrs. Clinton loses both states. It is true if Obama does well Mrs. Clinton is in trouble, but no way in hell is she out of it and with the super delegates waiting in the wings to decide this nomination I doubt seriously this will end soon.

Small contests of Mississippi and Wyoming happen later in March, but nothing of any substantiality until April 22nd in Pennsylvania which will be close no matter what people say right now. In the middle of May we still have North Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Oregon and Puerto Rico all with substantial delegate counts.

If we think somehow Howard Dean is going to broker a deal before the convention we are sadly mistaken. If Obama was down that certainly would be the case, but the Clintons will not be stopped. There is no down for them. It is the Presidency or nothing. They have already been there, what compromise could possibly be struck?

This is good politics, good theater, but is it good for the general is the real question? On another note, I do not like the safety right now of Obama's campaign. He seems to be playing it safe, ala New Hampshire. And if Mrs. Clinton wins Wisconsin next week, though the delegate math will be quite small for a win, the bragging rights could take her right up to Junior Tuesday for a big win and on to Pennsylvania. If she wins all three then maybe we need to start calling Al Gore. Regardless, of the outcome it is fun, but I am crossing my fingers for Wisconsin and then a win for Obama in Ohio or Texas and I believe some pressuring on the Clintons as well as the media talking about it being over could help it along. I doubt seriously, however we have any idea what happens until Pennsyvlania.