A Likely Scenario (269 to 269)

From Political wire:

All of the daily tracking polls demonstrate how the momentum of the presidential race is clearly shifting this week to Sen. Barack Obama:

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 46%, McCain 42%

Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 48%

New State polls from the National Journal:

Colorado: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

Florida: Obama 44%, McCain, 44%

New Mexico: Obama 49%, McCain, 42%

Ohio: McCain, 42%, Obama, 41%

Virginia: McCain, 48%, Obama, 41%

If I were judging this race right now it is still dead even. Though, Obama has clearly pulled ahead in the national polls back to where he belongs he still needs to pick off a couple of states, right? Will that be Virginia? If he does he wins. Ohio, again he wins as long as he keeps Pennsylvania. If McCain wins Florida, Virginia and Ohio then Obama needs to win New Mexico and Colorado and he wins. But, that is not an easy task, it is still elusive. In my mind New Mexico is in the bag right now, but I think Ohio has to be the task as well as keep PA and Michigan and he gets the white house.

Of course another scenario which is shocking at how easy this could happen. Scroll down and look at this. McCain wins Fl, Ohio and Virginia, Obama keeps all his battleground states including PA, MI and then picks off New Mexico and Colorado and Iowa - all very likely and keeps all of the Kerry states of Minn, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, California etc. But, McCain picks off New Hampshire which is also very close right now. The score: 269 electoral votes to 269 electoral votes. What happens? It goes to Congress and more than likely Obama wins.