Monday, April 21, 2008

Obama v. Hillary in Pa.

I have been contemplating this day, April 22nd for some time. What will happen? Who will win? Hillary of course, but by how much. The late breakers break for Hillary, "bittergate" Hillary's slam on the "activists" and move, Reverend Wright, etc.

Right now the Real Clear poll of polls has Hillary wining with a 6% margin, 49 - 43. approximately. Still with an eight percent margin of undecideds. Many pundits are saying Obama has a ceiling of 43% in the polls which does not bode well for him. "Bittergate" is going to hurt him. Mind you these are all the people seven weeks ago who said he will lose by 20 points in a landslide. Now a six percent margin is a net negative for him. Even if he loses by say 12 points, Hillary only picks up 15 delegates at the most, which he makes back up in North Carolina and a dead heat in Indiana. Where is that narrative?

Regardless, my take is Philadelphia and the suburbs will come out big for Obama and his operations (which magda of the SG was a part of) are legendary right now. I think this picks him up a couple of points. Tie this together with activist gate (because maybe the media does not think it a big deal, but progressives do) Philly breaks huge for him. But, in the end it will not be enough and I am going to predict a large single digit victory. 54 - 45 for Hillary with one percent going somewhere else as it always does. This is a win for Obama as far as I am concerned. At most I think this thing breaks 56-44. At least it can be a four point spread, but I think Hillary will win this thing clearly.
Though, check out the latest Public Policy polling. 49-46 for Obama. Their analysis is pretty succinct: With such a close race the final result tomorrow should hinge on turnout. If there is disproportionately high turnout in the Philadelphia metro area, where Obama has a 58-32 lead, he could pull out a victory. Clinton is dominating throughout pretty much the rest of the state. Go GOTV!


Butch said...

I have noticed that most of the undecideds are not truly undecided but reluctant Hillary voters. Every time I ask one or hear someone on the radio, they always come around to saying something like, "I'd like to vote for Barack Obama but..." or "I don't want to vote for Hillary but..."

I hope that's not the case, but that's why I feel a 6-point Hillary lead with a lot of undecideds will lead to a 10-point win.

Unless the polls are wrong... Obama people don't have land lines, right? :)

Butch said...

I hate being right :P