Thursday, November 13, 2008

Prop 8 Myths

I saw some stats on the Proposition 8 hate measure on Olbermann last night and wanted to follow-up. There is this idea that because Obama was so popular among black voters that the ballot measure passed because of the black vote. This is simply not true and as Olbermann put it we should not just repeat things we heard in the hall way [referring to O'Reilly) you should provide some source Bill-O.

Nate Silver at five thirty eight debunks the myth much better than I could:
Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California's black and Latino communities. But the notion that Prop 8 passed because of the Obama turnout surge is silly. Exit polls suggest that first-time voters -- the vast majority of whom were driven to turn out by Obama (he won 83 percent [!] of their votes) -- voted against Prop 8 by a 62-38 margin. More experienced voters voted for the measure 56-44, however, providing for its passage.

Now, it's true that if new voters had voted against Prop 8 at the same rates that they voted for Obama, the measure probably would have failed. But that does not mean that the new voters were harmful on balance -- they were helpful on balance. If California's electorate had been the same as it was in 2004, Prop 8 would have passed by a wider margin. Furthermore, it would be premature to say that new Latino and black voters were responsible for Prop 8's passage.

His final analysis is this is a generational thing and older folks in the black community, like the white community and every other community are more socially conservative and all we do is have to wait a few more years...

I will also say this. There are a lot more media outlets airing the very real anger of the progressive and gay communities. It is only a matter of time, though that is not a major consolation.

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