The Evolution of the Home Run

I was saddened to see Rick Ankiel's name associated with HGH this past week. And even more saddened to see his press conference and subsequent reports. Tommy John surgery is no joke, but since when is HGH a prescription drug and why are you getting it delivered from a pharmacy. Why not go pick up the drug at the pharmacy? Oh yeah, Rick, doctor-patient privilege. Remember, Rick it is your privilege.

Then, the news of Troy Glaus and his steroid problem, Jay Gibbons and now MLB wants to meet with Gary Mathews, jr and his shipments of HGH. Oh baseball is in trouble. But, when are we going to get the real culprits, baseball officials who deny this is a problem and say it is a few bad apples? You know, the Donald Rumsfeld defense. This is not a Barry Bonds, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield problem, this is a tremendous problem for baseball and the ungodly power numbers are ruining a magical game. Baseball has been a soulful experience for me, it helped save me, it taught me how to win, lose and how to be a man. This game is no ordinary game. When I see those fans who are passionate about the world cup and soccer, that passion is what I feel for this game, but it is something more. It is part of me. It is not separate from who I am. I do not exist without it and I feel a tremendous sadness when it becomes a laughing stock. So, I wanted to investigate just when these numbers went crazy. Here is that analysis.

The onset of the power game entered baseball when Babe Ruth decided to put down his pitcher's glove for good and play the outfield. In 1919 still with the Red Sox he played 111 games and hit 29 Home Runs breaking the single season record for most home runs in a single season. Before Ruth the home run was not considered to be important, instead it was considered to be selfish because of the chances of a pop-out and certainly because the fences were so far, hitting a home run was done by hitting it over the outfielder's reach rather than a fence. The year before Ruth hit his 29 Home Runs the league leader hit 11.

The next year Ruth was traded to the Yanks (by my beloved Red Sox) and the game changed forever. Ruth hit 54 Home Runs, the next closest player hit 19 and the birth of modern baseball began. Ruth hit 59 Home Runs the next year and then famously hitting 60 in 1927. By the end of the decade, however the likes of Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig and Hack Wilson were challenging his Home Run totals. In that decade from 1921- 1930 there were (16) 40 Home Run hitters (an average of 1.6 per season) and (38) 30 Home Run hitters (an average of almost 4 per season). Not until the late 20's did others begin hitting homers like Ruth.

In the next decade with Ted Williams, Joe Dimaggio, Jimmie Fox and the ending of Ruth and Gehrig's careers one would expect the totals to begin to sky rocket. But, they did not. Again, from 1931 - 1940 only (16) players hit 40 Home Runs during the decade (an average of 1.6 per season) and (59) players hit 30 Home Runs (an average of almost six per season). Only two players hit 50 home runs during the decade, Hank Greenberg hit 58 and in 1938 and Jimmie Fox hit 58 in 1932 and 50 also in 1938.

Remarkably during the next decade from 1941 - 50 the home run totals went down, most notably by the war years. An average of less than one 40 home run hitter (only 8 for the entire decade) per season and (4) 30 home run hitters (43 for the decade). The hitting was remarkable, however because Williams and Dimaggio had one of the best seasons ever in 1941. Stan Musial was beginning to flourish, but the pitching also seemed to catch up to the hitting as (the statistics show) seems to happen naturally through the decades.

The next decade from 1951 - 1960 is when the Home Run steadied and did so for the next forty years ebbing and flowing, with standout seasons and some anomalies that we will see. But, usually these seasons have to do with expansion of the MLB teams and then the following year the numbers come back into line. There is one season that does not follow that trend and it is 1987. Regardless, in the 50's an average of (3) players with forty home run seasons per season occurred during the decade (a total of (33)forty home run seasons for the decade) and (97) 30 home run seasons which is more than double the last decade for an average of almost (10) 30 home run performances per season during the 1950's.

Several things to take note during this decade - black players integrated and their unique play began its indelible mark upon baseball, including Willy Mays, Hank Aaron, Ernie Banks and Eddie Mathews. Willy Mays hit 50 Home Runs during the 1955 season as did Mickey Mantle in 1956, the only two players to hit 50 homers during the decade. It seems integration certainly helped the amount of players to hit 30 home runs, but not 40 home runs. Of course integration also added to the pool better pitching with the likes of Don Newcombe and Satchel Paige among many others. It seems to me from the numbers 40 home run seasons remained rare and 30 home run seasons increased.

Along come the 1960's the first real batch of expansion. The Los Angeles Angels and the Minnesota Twins were added to the American League. What happened? Roger Maris hit 61 Home Runs, the first time since 1927 anyone hit 60 Home Runs. Mickey Mantle hit 54 Home Runs and probably would have matched him had he not been sick and hurt. The next season the New York Mets and the Houston Colt 45's were added to the national league. But, looking at the decade as a whole the numbers do not increase that much. There was a total of (37) 40 Home Run hitters averaging almost four per season and a total of (120) 30 home run seasons during the decade, averaging 12 per season. Again, the numbers only increased statistically for the 30-home run seasons. Of course by the end of the decade you had the likes of Bob Gibson and Denny McClain, not to mention maybe the greatest pitcher ever -Sandy Koufax smack in the middle of the decade.

Pitching was catching up. Not to mention the second round of expansion occurred in 1969 adding the Montreal Expos and the San Diego Padres to the NL and the Seattle Pilots and Kansas City Royals to the AL. Of course 1969 and 1970 were big years for home run hitters despite the supremacy of pitching. In 1969 17 hitters hit 30 home runs and there were seven 40 homer seasons, both records at that point and in 1970 19 hitters hit 30 home runs another record and six 40 home run hitters.

The DH was added to the American League in 1973. Despite this new hitting advantage pitching reigned in hitters. In the decade there were only (17) 40-home run seasons (an average of below 2) and (92) 30-home run seasons (an average of just over nine). Again in 1977 when the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays were added home run totals went up. George Foster became the only player to hit 50 home runs in a season for the decade and 19 hitters hit 30 home runs that season, despite only (4) hitters doing the same the previous season. Expansion clearly helps the hitters in the year or two following it, but pitching adjusts.

See Part II - the Steroid era

The Evolution of the Home Run Part II

The 1980's in my mind are a very important decade for the home run despite it being a down decade. First in 1981 a strike occurred and only one player hit 30 home runs, the formidable Mike Schmidt. The year of 1987 accounts for this down year, however and we will get to that. As a decade (this time frame is 1981- 1992 a 12 year period) the 1980's had only (16) 40 home run seasons, one less than the 1970's (an average of 1.7 per season for the decade). But, there were (120) 30 homer seasons (an average of 12 per season for the decade). What is most important about this decade is 1987. We should look at the three year period of 1986-1988 to show how askew 1987 was and surely this could not have happened by accident.

In 1986 Jesse Barfield (yes, Jesse Barfield) led the league in homers with 40 followed by Mike Schmidt with 37. Only one 40 home run hitter and (13) 30 home run hitters. That year Mike Scott led the league in ERA with a 2.22 ERA. Skipping 1987 for the moment in 1988 Jose Canseco led the league with 42 homers followed by Daryl Strawberry with 39 and Joe Magrane led the league in ERA with a 2.18 followed by David Cone at 2.22. There was only one 4o home run hitter and only (5) 30 home run hitters. The #6 Home Run hitter was Will Clark with 29. Not a single hitter hit 50 home runs in the decade, a feat that was becoming more of a rarity and 60 home runs was considered to be almost as untouchable as hitting .400 and 56 straight games with a hit.

In 1987, however an astonishing (28) hitters hit 30 home runs or more led by rookie hulk Mark McGwire with 49 as did Andre Dawson. The #50 home run hitter that year had 26 home runs in 1987. The #13 Home Run hitter in 1988 had 26 home runs and the #50 home run hitter in 1988 only had 19 home runs. This number jump in 1987 and then back to normal in 1988 could not be by accident. Wade Boggs in 1987 had 24 home runs and never before or after had more than 11 home runs, done in 1994, the only other time he had double figure home runs. Talk that year was that the ball was juiced whatever that meant. Something, surely happened and it changed the next year. But, did baseball learn something that year? Was it an experiment to try a new power surge?

The Steroid (HGH) Era

That power surge miraculously occurred when baseball was on the brink in 1994. It began around 1993 and then went through the roof in 1995 after the strike never to relinquish. First the numbers. I included the time frame of 1993 -2006 a fourteen year period with the strike occurring in the second year. But, the averages are remarkable how much they differ. During this period there were (139) 40 home run seasons (two occurring in the strike year of 1994) an average of just over ten per season. The highest other total for a decade in the 1960's was an average of 3.7 for the decade. During that time frame there were (437) 30 home run seasons an average of (33) per season. The highest other totals were an average of 12 during the 1960's and the 1980's. That is a statistical jump that can only be accounted for by a surge in the home run through other means. Many of the arguments over the years were expansion (not true), pitching (not true), the umpires (ridiculous), smaller ball parks (partly true, but not really) and the players getting bigger! Voila!

Watch the numbers rise. In 1993 a much smaller and in my mind much better player, Barry Bonds led the league with 46 home runs. That year there were five 40 home run hitters, the fifth largest total for a season so far. The first two occurring in the golden years of baseball 1953 -55 and then 1969-70 with expansion. But, there were (22) 30 home run hitters a record season up to that point. After the strike of 1994, 1995 followed 93 with four 40 home run hitters and 21 30 home run hitters. Also, Albert Belle had 50 homers that year the second time in the decade so far a hitter hit 50. Cecil Fielder did it in 1990 with 51. I remember these two seasons thinking how momentous these occasions were, fifty homers a Ruthian feat.

In 1996 Mark McGwire hit 50 home runs for the first time (52) and Brady Anderson also compiled 50 home runs. He had not hit more than 21 in a season up to that point and never again hit more than 24. That year there were (17) players who hit 40 homers and (43) players who hit 30 homers. In 1997 two players hit 50 (McGwire had 58 and Griffey - 56), 12 players hit 40 homers and 31 players hit 30. In 1998 ("the year that saved baseball") McGwire hit 70 and Sosa 66, with four 50 home run hitters that year, Griffey and Greg Vaughn. Thirteen 40 homer seasons and (33) 30 homer seasons. The pinnacle is the year 2000 when the high was 50 homers for Sosa, sixteen forty homer seasons and (47) players with 30 home runs or more. Ridiculous. The #50 home run hitter had 28 while the #50 home run hitter just 8 years before had 17. In one season (2000) that is half the total of 40 homer seasons for the entire decade of the 1980's and that includes 1987 when 28 hitters did that.

The next year Bonds had 73 homers with again four players hitting 50 (Sosa had 60), (12) players hit 40 and (41) players hitting 30. In all from 1920 - 1994 there were only (17) 50 home run seasons. They were the standouts, Mays, Ruth, Greenberg, Mantle, Foxx. In the period from 1995-2006 21 players had 50 home run seasons including the likes of Brady Anderson, Luis Gonzalez and Greg Vaughn. These are not names we associate with Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Ruth, Williams, Frank Robinson, but somehow they are there. To put it in a deeper perspective from 1951 - 1990 there were 98 40-home run seasons. And from 1991 - 2000 there were 96 home run seasons. That is not an accurate portrayal of the level of play and ability to hit a home run. What is more 1991 - 92 followed the same trajectory as the 80's, but then 93 there is a jump in the numbers that never stops. Rafael Palmeiro has 569 home runs and is tenth on the all-time list. This guy was not even the best on his team most years.

Something must be done to re-focus the integrity of the game. We are not "out" of the steroid era. It is still happening. Miraculously, players in their "contract" year suddenly have career years, a la Gary Mathews and his new 50 million dollar contract. The performance enhancing market has become a matter of economics. You want big money then you use. That is the bottom line. Major League Baseball owes it to all of us to tell the truth and get the game back where it should be. Who cares if Bonds or anyone else is prosecuted? This is a baseball problem and there are literally hundreds of players yet to be caught. But, who cares? Develop a test and players will stop using. Then, we will know what is real and what was not.

Ken Griffey, jr. who has never been linked to steroids may be the biggest loser in all of this. He sits at 593 home runs, hurt and looking like the almost 38 year old player he is. He is having a good season, but he is a shadow of what he used to be, just as Mays was at 38, Ruth, Aaron, etc. One does not start an assault on the record books at the age of 36. MLB should come clean so we can all trust it again.

Here is a spreadsheet table of decades. Take a look and decide for yourself. Also see Part I of the Evolution of the Home Run.

Dispatches From Cascadia Vol. 3

News from the Subversive Sports Desk

Here in the Republic of Cascadia we like our sports a little on the subversive side, and as far as athletic competition goes, it doesn’t get much more deliciously subversive than Women’s Flat Track Roller Derby. Forget the Portland Trailblazers landing the #1 pick in the NBA draft, or the Seattle Mariners enjoying their best season in years, Portland and all of Cascadia is going crazy for our hometown girls the Rose City Rollers. Last Saturday the Rollers elite All-star squad, dubbed “The Wheels of Justice” took on the gritty girls from the mile high city, Denver’s “5280 Fight Club.” The last time these teams met it was an all out brawl on wheels, with the “Fight Club” edging the “Wheels” by a mere five points. But this time Portland was playing for more than just revenge and bragging rights. The Wheels are ranked 13th nationally in the Women’s Flat Track Derby Association (WFTDA) and they were looking to put the big hurt on Denver (ranked 17th) in order to move up in the rankings. From the opening whistle it was clear whose night this was. Portland drummed up a ton of business for their team’s primary sponsor, the Portland Orthopedic and Fracture Clinic, by literally steamrolling the girls from Denver. The Wheels were running up the points faster than the team of referees could count. Portland was led by their all-star Jammers: Rhea DeRange, Sol Train and Goodie Two Skates, who were seemingly scoring points at will. The Jammers were backed up by a whole cast of hard hitting muscle, including November Pain, Mega Hurtz and Dora Doom. No team in a WFTDA Bout has broken 100 points this season but by the end of the first period the Wheels had run the score up so high that the chants of One-Hun-Dred were echoing through the rink from the rabid crowd. Although they slowed the pace down to take it easy on their opponent in the final two periods, the Wheels easily broke 100 points and the 111 to 74 final score seems a lot closer than this blowout bout really was. This overwhelming performance will surely catapult Portland into the top 10 WFTDA rankings and it also serves notice to any other teams who dare come to Portland to face the wrath of the Wheels of Justice. No one gets off easy in the Rollers House of Pain!!

For those of you in the New York City area, don’t forget to check out the Gotham Girls Roller Derby League. Next up on the schedule, the Manhattan Mayhem take on the Queens of Pain, August 11 at City College of NY. For more info on the Fabulous Rose City Rollers and their All-Star Squad, the Wheels of Justice, check out their excellent website at rosecityrollers.com

--submitted by cousin marc, the wandering road

michael vick -- the real story by playahata

for a compelling, much needed discussion of the race issue surrounding michael vick & dogfighting, read this scathing article, written by my colleague's friend from his blog. see excerpt below...

"Somehow people who claim to believe in the Constitution and due process think it only applies to certain people. Somehow people who claim they care about animal abuse seem to only care about their pets. Somehow people who claim to care about animals find themselves wholly unconcerned, with a system and society that routinely abuses animals, or how the creatures that grace their plates or wrap around their shoulders as a status symbol got there. And somehow despite the public’s pious grandstanding and noble language I don’t think Michael Vick’s trial and public execution is about animal cruelty."

see their website, playahata for more insightful news and perspectives that demand to be heard.

they tell it like it is & they define themselves as: "(1) Playahata (n) - One who offers truthful constructive criticism that is in opposition to popular opinion or the status quo, (2) Playerhater (n) - One who detracts from the legitimate success of others, or disrespects others and their ideas due to ignorance, envy, jealousy or too much free time.

So, Hater = Bad, Hata = Good, Hating = Negative, Hatin’ = Positive"

brilliant. also check out the hata & hater of the month!