And the Winner is - Franken!

Pre-election Eve Ranting and Predicting

Yesterday, since early voting ended in Hillsborough County (Tampa Bay) I was unsure what I would do with my time or my day. GOTV? Which is always fun and interesting, but I feel that the youngins on the Obama campaign handle this stuff much better than I. So, much to my surprise my friend (the Vice Chair of the Democratic Party in Tampa) who abandoned me on Friday turned up on Sunday. She called me and we talked about our experiences on Saturday. How the early vote lines were out of control. Five hour waits at College Hill and Temple Terrace in Tampa and that Miami Dade County was supposedly much busier. She said to me, if you want you can go volunteer at the Florida for Change statewide hotline. She heard many people were not getting great advice and she thought it a good idea for me to go down and log some hours. voila, I had my day planned out. I decided this will be my last day as I am flying home to be in New Jersey on election day. After all, I am an elected official, whatever that means...but I am needed.

Anyway, I got downtown early enough, introduced myself to the Legal team. They were all about 25 years old (this must be the reason I was needed down here) and Hastings and Chicago Law school grads. Fresh grads at that. I was given a phone and told go get started. The phone rang within seconds and I was off and running. The statewide hotline in Florida is designed for anyone having trouble with voting or a simple question about voting to call and get their question answered. The typical question was: "Is early voting still going on?" "Where?" "Can you tell me my precinct I will be voting in?" "I requested an absentee ballot, but I did not get it, can I still vote?" Many of the same questions I was asked at the polls. But, here is where it got impressive. "I need a ride to the polls, can you help?" When this question arose you inquire as to the person's information plug in into the website and submit. Within hours this person is contacted and set up with a ride to the polls.

Or someone might say I requested an absentee ballot, but I cannot leave the house (disabled or elderly) can someone come and get it? You plug this information in the website at headquarters and the person's vote will be picked up and submitted by the Obama campaign. We had several calls about this exact scenario, that an Obama campaign rep. called and knew they had an absentee and is willing to come to the house and pick it up. Unbelievably, a colleague next to me received a call from an elderly gentleman that asked that if he was voting for McCain would the Obama campaign pick up the ballot? My colleague encouraged him to vote for Obama anyway. We checked with some higher ups and indeed the Obama campaign would pick up his vote. This was told to me early, the Obama campaign does not discriminate as to voting. They are not out to stop anyone from voting. This seemed outwardly and foolishly selfless to me, but impressive nonetheless.

This all leads to where I am going. Predictions. The Obama campaign's GOTV strategy and volunteer structure is something I have never seen or heard about before. It is sophisticated, energetic and motivated, if not sometimes a bit chaotic. But, all of my time spent in the field this week in Florida, in Hillsborough County I saw one McCain volunteer. This is a county Bush won handily over Kerry (so the vote said). He showed up nailed in a few signs and left. But, Obama volunteers were everywhere and they are ALL willing to go the extra mile.

This will prove to be the difference between a win and a landslide (these predictions are based on the hope that no shenanigans will take place, but this is a highly suspect proposition). There are several states to keep our eyes on early. Florida's polls close at 7 PM and I don't believe it will be called until late, but I believe Florida will go blue for Obama this year based solely on GOTV operations. Obama will win Virginia as well and Pennsylvania. These two states are the states to watch tomorrow night early. If both Virginia and Pennsylvania go for Obama early the election is over. Pennsylvania, however scares me for one reason and one reason only. McCain is making his last stand here. I do not think he has enough to win it, but why is he spending so much time there? Is he planning on stealing it? Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but 2000 had Florida, 2004 had Ohio, and I wonder is Pennsylvania this year's stomping ground?

Still, I do not think it is enough. In my humble opinion Obama will win the following Bush states: Ohio will go blue, New Mexico and Iowa. I think Florida will be close, but he will pull it out. Colorado and Nevada will also go for Obama. This leaves Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana. I do not believe that these states are really leaning Obama though it is the prevailing opinion in many polls. I will believe it when I see it. What gives me pause, however is the night could prove to be a watershed moment in American elections and maybe Obama's GOTV is so good this will occur. I don't know. My prediction is these states stay red, but barely. Missouri probably by a 51-49 margin and Indiana and North Carolina by a four point margin. Still, the victory will be sizable and he will have his "working majority for change" that he talks about and it will be time to get down to work. If Montana and North Dakota go for Obama I will lay in shock and it will mean the landslide is in full swing and we are looking at something truly historic. New Hampshire will also stay blue. Here is my map.

Obama ends with 338 electoral votes and McCain with 200. With only 270 to win this will be a landslide. This map is a huge win and he could easily win without Pennsylvania. Here is hoping for President elect Obama at about 9 PM tomorrow!! I will leave you with a choked up Obama eulogizing his grandmother Toot:

Early Voting in Tampa, Fl.: A View on the Ground

I am working for the Obama campaign in Tampa, Florida. I was sent to the College Hill Public Library to oversee early voting there.The site is to the left pictured here. Early voting is occurring across Florida at select locations. Here in Tampa (Hillsborough County) if you live in the County you can early vote at any location, which is very convenient. I showed up early at 8 am and worked until about 2 PM. When I got to the polls there was a line of 100 people out the door. When I left at about 2 PM there was a line of about 75 people. The line never stopped! People are very excited.

The line of voters was at least 95% African-American. It is in the College Hill section of Tampa, not that I know much about Tampa, but I got the impression it was a predominantly black neighborhood. All throughout the morning there were vans of folks coming in and out shouting "Obama!" It was very heartening and exciting to say the least. Of course I stayed neutral giving advice only on the ballot, though we are working for the Obama campaign, we do not challenge anyone. We only encourage voter participation. The Obama campaign makes this very clear. It is a good thing because I would never challenge someone's right to vote.

At one point in the morning an African-American addressed the entire line in oratory telling them that when they go home they need to 'go knock on the doors of five friends and take them to the polls. This election is close and we cannot let them take Florida again! McCain will not let a black man be President! Those in the panhandle in Pensacola will be out to vote for him and will do anything they can to win this election." The entire crowd started cheering and he was told to repeat the message for the back of the line and he did. And then an older gentleman came to get a woman out of line to go see her mother and the entire crowd started booing. Amazing. The guy was pretty pissed off.

Then I overheard conversations in the line as they came up to me that the only time they got to vote for a black candidate for President was Jesse Jackson. They must have meant in 1984 and 1988. Shirley Chisolm ran in 1972, but no one thought she had any realistic chance. Ditto for Jesse, but he was taken more seriously by the Democrats at least. This time around the pride is obvious. And then I thought as I stood there handing out ballots, giving advice to voters and answering questions, and allowing elderly black women to use my folding chair that these women and men for that matter couldn't vote 45 years ago in the deep south. It was not until 1965 the voting rights movement proved to move the south to action. It is astonishing a black man now stands on the foothills of the Presidency.

When these elderly folks were in their mid 20's it was the Jim Crow south, separate everything and no voting in the elections. Martin Luther King had not even begun the Alabama Bus Boycotts and the birth of the civil rights movement was years away. Simply breathtaking I thought to myself; this election is truly historical. And the feeling among many of my friends is that this election is in the bag, but the talk in this line is that we need to do all we can to secure the vote and make sure they do not steal this election.

Sadly, Glory to the Union informed me of Amendment 2 that is on the ballot in Florida that restricts Marriage between a man and a woman hinges upon the black vote. I discussed the ballot with many black voters and indeed many were voting for the Amendment to restrict marriage and have a Constitutional Amendment banning gay marriage. One bright note, however was the Florida Democratic Black Caucus is distributing their own ballots to every voter and encouraging voters to vote no on the measure. I think it will be tight just as the election will be.

Uncounted: How the 2004 Election Was Stolen

As we move within two weeks of the 2008 election I want to remind folks that if you do not remember the 2004 election was stolen. If we think this cannot happen again, then think again. Remember the exit polls were way off in 10 of 11 battleground states all in the direction of Bush. A statistical fact that cannot be proved outside of blatant fraud. This happened. Just because people will not accept it doesn't make it not so. Here is a statistical report that explains exit polls and how this did not happen by accident.

Exit polls were used shortly after the 2004 election to prove the Republic of Ukraine President fixed the election. From pressure from the United States the sitting President was forced to resign. But, not in America. We sit by like sheep and believe what our leaders tell us. Why would someone who started a war based on lies then steal an election?

Can Obama Win?

Suddenly, all of the polls are in Obama's favor. It is the economic meltdown and the Palin come-down as well as Obama's performance in the debates that have swung the polls clearly in his favor nationally and state by state. But, a serious question remains - can the Democrats win a head to head election against the Rethuglicans. Common wisdom regarded Hillary Clinton as the candidate to beat the Republicans because the Clintons have shown they can beat them. This is simply not true.

The democrats have not won a head to head general election against the Republicans since 1976 when Jimmy Carter defeated President Gerald Ford in the wake of the Watergate scandal. A time that is not unlike the time we see here today, a confluence of events that is in the democrats favor. Carter won only 296 electoral votes, a close national election and won just over the 50 percent margin against Ford. Obama is now polling at 50 percent, a place he needs to maintain if he is to win.

President Clinton, the last democratic president did not win head to head against the Republicans, but was helped by the magnanimous Ross Perot who actually received 19 percent of the vote, but did not win a state. This has to be said for two reasons: 1) Without Perot he would have lost in a big way; and 2) Democrats need to stop picking on Ralph Nader because if it were not for Perot there would have never been a Clinton Presidency. Clinton only garnered 43 percent of the vote and never won a majority in both elections. He did however, win 370 electoral votes. Nader gained a dismal 2.7% of the vote and less than than 2% in Florida. So, please can we stop picking on the brilliant Nader. Third parties are historically good for the contender that is the way it works.

If we are to win we cannot rest on our laurels or become complacent because Obama is ahead in the polls. Nothing is guaranteed especially taking into account the vote caging and vote stealing that has been going on since the 2000 election of which the GOP is becoming more sophisticated. The Brennan Center just released a report on voter purging that indicates 13 million voters have been purged since 2004 and 2006. Putting aside the gross violation of our civil rights this presents a significant problem for democrats. Get out and vote, tell your friends to vote, door knock, phone bank and become a poll worker. It could not be more important.

A Likely Scenario (269 to 269)

From Political wire:

All of the daily tracking polls demonstrate how the momentum of the presidential race is clearly shifting this week to Sen. Barack Obama:

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 46%, McCain 42%

Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44%

Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

Rasmussen: Obama 48%, McCain 48%

New State polls from the National Journal:

Colorado: Obama 45%, McCain 44%

Florida: Obama 44%, McCain, 44%

New Mexico: Obama 49%, McCain, 42%

Ohio: McCain, 42%, Obama, 41%

Virginia: McCain, 48%, Obama, 41%

If I were judging this race right now it is still dead even. Though, Obama has clearly pulled ahead in the national polls back to where he belongs he still needs to pick off a couple of states, right? Will that be Virginia? If he does he wins. Ohio, again he wins as long as he keeps Pennsylvania. If McCain wins Florida, Virginia and Ohio then Obama needs to win New Mexico and Colorado and he wins. But, that is not an easy task, it is still elusive. In my mind New Mexico is in the bag right now, but I think Ohio has to be the task as well as keep PA and Michigan and he gets the white house.

Of course another scenario which is shocking at how easy this could happen. Scroll down and look at this. McCain wins Fl, Ohio and Virginia, Obama keeps all his battleground states including PA, MI and then picks off New Mexico and Colorado and Iowa - all very likely and keeps all of the Kerry states of Minn, Wisconsin, Washington, Oregon, California etc. But, McCain picks off New Hampshire which is also very close right now. The score: 269 electoral votes to 269 electoral votes. What happens? It goes to Congress and more than likely Obama wins.

Jeff Tweedy Sums It Up

It's like Jeff Tweedy is inside my head in this video. To summarize, he says Obama signifies what we hope America to be, what we thought it could be in our youth and this may be the last chance we have to see it come to fruition.

This is for all of you community organizers out there....

If you don't read/watch Jay's blog, get on it. http://www.illdoctrine.com

... the end of the world as we know it ...

SG logo creator, Renato Alarcão, from Associado SIB - Sociedade dos Ilustradores do Brasil -submitted the above image published by a fellow illustrator that was just sent to the Society of Brazilian Illustrator's web group.

renato asked about john mccain & is worried what will happen if we elect him... and he then quoted REM's Michael Stipe who used to say: "It's the end of the world as we know it..."

thanks renato for sharing this image and your thoughts!

how hillary can win the democratic nomination

Michelle Obama on the Colbert Report

This is great. Michelle Obama being first lady may be one of my favorite things about an Obama presidency.



Just a little taste of what you will get if you watch:

Colbert asking her why she would want to be first lady: "You'd never get any sleep because as I understand it the phone keeps ringing at 3am."

Maybe we'll get to meet her when we work in Philly this weekend? Can't hurt to dream can it?

Robbing Delegates, Playing Dirty

Just read this:

Sen. Hillary Clinton, in an about-face, said on Friday she wants the Democratic Party delegates in two states that were barred by the national party to be reinstated and counted in the race to determine the party's U.S. presidential nominee.

In those states, Michigan and Florida, Clinton could stake claim to nearly all the delegates to the nominating convention in question -- more than 350.

With the Florida primary coming up, Hillary has gone all-out to rip victory out of Obama's hands. And she has gone to tricks to get out front. Barack, unsurprisingly, was not at all happy. A spokesperson for Obama had this to say:

"Whether it is Barack Obama's record, her position on Social Security, or even the meaning of the Florida primary, it seems like Hillary Clinton will do or say anything to win an election."

Clinton's statements, in an attempt to justify her blatant rule-breaking, were absurd.

"I think it's important we send a message to the people of Michigan and Florida that Democrats care about their lives and their futures, and I will certainly do everything I can to be a good president for them," she said.

That is not the point: the point is that your opponents did not campaign in Michigan and Florida because you agreed that these states should not have jumped the line.

But now, Hillary, all's fair in love and war. Or something like that.

From the Coffee Front - My Perfect Candidate

Observing the primaries from the side (because I am not an active participant) allows me to come up with thoughts and ideas that are unbound neither to reality nor to the typical political views of this country. Since I can’t vote and affect the future, I can at least play some mind games about who would be my chosen candidate for the election.

Now, as a liberal person, I cannot choose for a republican candidate (and please excuse me all my fellow republicans – but some of their major beliefs are beyond my capability to accept), and since an independent candidate has a zero chance of actually winning the sought title, I am left with the democratic candidates.

Having a woman candidate against a black one already makes this election interesting. Although I have doubts about the country’s readiness to accept either as a worthy future president within the history of a white male president past, it is about time that a country that is based on diversity would allow diversity within its leaders. It is about time to get rid of those old habits and embrace the idea that the gender of a candidate nor his skin color does not affect his/her abilities and capabilities.

Watching this duo closely, I got the feeling that the political ideas and agenda of both are almost indistinct and can probably become one solid policy after a day or two of negotiating, which leaves us with the different approach for the presidential role in these two candidates (as was written in the recent New Yorker).

It seems that the real difference between the two has to do with their view of the position which both seek. An organized, well experienced bureaucracy manager as opposed to a young and fresh soul who believes in affecting the future by entering a fresh and positive vision into the system, over the pompous old bureaucracy spirit.

The choice is not easy. It is very tempting to choose the young blood that calls up to shake the old foundation and create an emotional positive wave around everything that he says (Barack) over the much less likable personality of the woman who has mastered the old foundation and might know how to run them but have a very little thrilling energy to offer (Hillary). But then, the memory of another Barack comes to my mind, the one who ran for the prime minister position in Israel with the same positive spiritual energy over any experience in politics. I admit that I was swept by his model and celebrated his victory just to see him falling in every little trap that the political world is very good in putting in front of you, and making the biggest mistakes possible over his (very good) intentions.

Suddenly it hit me, my perfect candidate is someone in between the two options, which is very rare to find in one person, but as a combination….

If I could vote, I would vote for the first of these two candidates that would go up publicly and invite the other one to co-operate together (as a vice president), a perfect combination of vision and experience. The first person to realize that as much as he lacks qualities which his opponent has and that acknowledging together they can offer a better future for everyone, is my Perfect Candidate.